Tom Silverman has made his entire career in the music industry. Circa the early 80s he founded Dance Music Report, the New Music Seminar (NMS) and Tommy Boy Records, now Tommy Boy Entertainment, whose roster includes hip hop staples De La Soul, Naughty by Nature, House of Pain, and more. WE+PR, the public relations team who works with NMS, set up a phone interview for me with Silverman, who had tons to say about the music industry. Stream the full interview—all 55min—by pressing the play button to the ←left—or on Bandcamp.

Our interview took place on January 20, 2011. Later that night he would fly to France to attend MIDEM and I would drive with my dad to Philadelphia—fearless of impending snow—to see my cousin Sharon headline at Johnny Brenda’s. On the phone that afternoon, Silverman told me about some of his early experiences with Tommy Boy Records, thoughts on the current state of the industry, and about the then upcoming New Music Seminar in Los Angeles—NMS LA 2011 took place last week (February 14–16).

If you remember I’d attended NMS NYC 2010 last summer and had heard Silverman speak to the summer crowd inside Webster Hall. I can tell you he is extremely passionate about what’s right and wrong in the music industry, which you’ll be able to hear yourself as our conversation heats up through the interview. Below I’ve transcribed a few select moments.

08:00 Silverman: We aren’t selling records—we’re selling perception. The perceived value of music is 100 percent arbitrary.

09:30 Silverman: He [Steve Jobs] has to work with a gigantic lead time and drop new products every 3–6 months like we drop albums. We haven’t thought about the obsolescence of music [in the way that Jobs thinks about Apple's product lifecycles].

15:45 Silverman: [On iTunes] every time somebody coverts from buying songs to buying an album [Soundscan] deducts it from buying singles. It acts almost as if those singles hadn’t been bought. So if I bought two singles from an artist last year and then I bought the album this year, then that artist gets minus two singles. So that’s also had an impact. In 18 percent of iTunes sales, album sales are ‘complete my album’ sales, and with some artists it’s a lot more than that. So every time somebody completes an album it’s a minimun of one song, but most usually it’s two songs that are minused out. That’s had a major impact in turning song sales backwards, not because less songs are selling, but because single songs are being coverted into albums and then being deducted from singles.

16:45 Silverman: What’s happening right now is catalog sales are dropping off in singles and they’re slowing down substantially in albums (digital albums) because people have already rebought their collections in MP3 form—in digital form.

25:05 RVE: If you’re going to advertise anywhere I don’t know why you would do it anywhere besides Facebook—because of the way you can target stuff. [...] Say you’re in a rock band in New York City. You could target an ad on Facebook to people that like the Smashing Pumpkins that live in New York City that are between the age of 20–25. [...] I wouldn’t advise anyone to buy ads on Google. I know Google makes all this money from ads but I never click on them—I have clicked on Facebook ads.

34:10 RVE: I was reading about [Pablo Picaso] on Wikipedia and there’s so many things that correlate to the music industry. [...] They said the total number of artworks he produced is estimated at 50,000 which is a lot of pieces of [art] but he didn’t sell most of them. He had most of them in his possession when he died. He only sold the ones that he needed to sell to make money. The rest of them he kept because…I guess he just wanted to keep them or was just to busy making art. He wasn’t really concerned with it. I wonder if today if he’d be like taking pictures of it and uploading pictures of it to Flickr…or you know? Also they said that his art has been stolen more than any other artist in the world. [...] He’s pretty much referred to as the most famous artist.

35:35 Silverman: There’s influential art and there’s popular art. Just because it’s popular it doesnn’t necessarily mean that it’s important but it does mean something. Margaret Mead, the famous cultural anthropologist, said “never doubt that a small group of thoughtful committed citizens can change the world—indeed it is the only thing that ever has.” The point is it’s always a small group of people that make all the change. [...] Kind of like Kool Herc, Afrika Bambaataa, and Grandmaster Flash all in the Bronx doing hip hop and nobody else in the world was doing hip hop—it changed the whole world really but it came from a 5-mile radius.

36:45 RVE: People would probably want me to ask about what you said in the Wired interview last year about most albums being just “noise” from “hobbyists” that clutters the marketplace. I mean I think that came across as kind of like a negative outlook to a lot of people, but I was thinking, aren’t really—I mean a hobbyist is really someone that just does something for pleasure. I think it has sort of a negative connotation [...] but aren’t the hobbyists the ones really driving musical innovation, or don’t you think they’re playing a big part in that?

37:30 Silverman: It doesn’t seem like they are. I always believed that they would be but it doesn’t seem like they are. Why isn’t any of that stuff breaking through? I mean if it’s that fantastic, it’s findable, everything findable, somebody’s got to discover it, and the word needs to spread. Why isn’t all this fantastic, creative, amazing art coming out musically through the web where everything is available accoding to the long-tail theory.

38:00 RVE: You want to think the cream will rise to the top.

38:03 Silverman: And it’s not happening. In fact not only is it not happening, it happened more before there was an internet than it’s happening now. I can tell you when Afrika Bambaataa came out with “Planet Rock” it rose to the top and I had only one or two employees working with me and we ended up selling 600,000 twelve inches. The cream rose to the top better then than it does now.

39:00 RVE: People like choices. Me, I don’t want to hear something that’s like everything else. I want to find [music] that’s different, the stuff that’s cutting-edge, and the stuff that’s changing. I mean there’s so many like generic…I mean there’s a lot stuff that just sounds generic. When you find something that’s really unique, really good, then it’s awesome. The more people you have making music the more likely that’s going to happen.

39:40 Silverman: Definitely there’s five times as many people making music now than there was 10 years ago. There should be five times as many great pieces of music coming through than ever. But the opposite is true. [...] In 2008 there were 1,500 releases that sold over 10,000 units. In 2009 that number dropped to 1,300. In 2008 there were about 200 artists who broke 10,000 for the first time. Less than eight of them were DIY artists that broke on their own or on very small indie labels. [... ] Eight artists breaking on brand-new or on their own labels is pathetic!

41:50 Silverman: Using samples, moving around samples, and working with Garage Band is kind of like the musical equivalent of color by numbers. [...] You don’t have to be able to play an instrument really. You don’t have to be an amazing engineer. You don’t have to go into a studio and know how mic’s work. Anyone can do it. It’s a two-edged sword. On one edge it gives power to the people and on the other edge it gives power to the people who have no abilities.

42:50 RVE: I’d rather have a world where anyone can make music. [...] I think stuff gets filtered by people’s friends. I think people say “hey did you listen to this?” I think that’s still going on but I think it’s going on Facebook and in text messages—I think it’s still going on in person too but it’s also happening on Facebook [...] because it’s easy to share stuff. I think the stuff that’s getting shared more is the stuff that has more readily available in a “content” format.

48:25 RVE: Every TED video that gets recorded goes on YouTube and is available for free…why not do that for NMS?

48:35 Silverman: You know what if I could charge $5,000 like TED charges for people that come and have a waiting list then I’d put everything up there [on YouTube].

48:55 RVE: The way I see it though it doesn’t cost you anything extra to put it on YouTube, right? Wouldn’t it be free promotion?

49:02 Silverman: If we put it on YouTube and people see that then they don’t have to come to the conference. Then it does cost me something because our numbers will go down even further and we won’t be able to afford to do the conference.

49:17 RVE: The New York one [last summer] sold out, right?

49:20 Silverman: It sold out but it sold out at such a low price. [...] It’s a marginal business. Let’s put it this way. Nobody makes money at the New Music Seminar.

52:50 RVE: I just feel like instead of listening to those baby-boomer generation executives I’d rather listen to their kids because I think that’s where you’re really going to learn stuff.

53:03 Silverman: I hear you but nobody’s going to pay to hear their kids talk [at NMS].

// NMS NYC 2010 and NMS LA 2011 both sold out. I think unleashing all the keynotes on YouTube would increase attendance—do you? Who’d you like to see speak at the next NMS?

There’s a lot of green—as a whole music consumption on the web is clearly increasing. One contributing factor to that is that the percentage of people that have internet access is growing. Notably extreme growth occurred for SoundCloud, OurStage, Bandcamp, Grooveshark, and ReverbNation. It’s understandable why SoundCloud is rocketing—it offers rock-solid tools, widgets, community, and an API. In summer 2010, SoundCloud launched a Creative Commons search page. Like Indaba Music, SoundCloud is heavily geared towards electronic music and producers. IMO electronic music is growing faster than rock and has more room to evolve. In my analysis of the 2009 heat map, I referred to Grooveshark as Jaws-like and this year was another feeding frenzy. Grooveshark now gets more visits than Last.fm. But let’s zoom out and view the bigger picture:

In February 2010, Sysomos reported that approximately 31% of YouTube videos are music—roughly one out of every three. The YouTube Music area on the map below represents this 31%. Its size is roughly equivalent to 3x everything else combined. Compared to YouTube, Grooveshark is a minnow. You want pop perspective? According to the Compete data, ladygaga.com had more visits in 2010 than any other artist, and although her traffic decreased 55% over the year, she still gets 5x as much traffic as nin.com. According to data from Next Big Sound, Lady Gaga videos got played 45 million times on Vevo* in December 2010. Dividing that number by the 2 million unique visitors that Compete estimated for Vevo that month tells us that the average Vevo user watches 23 Lady Gaga videos per month. Scream now if you have to. Who had the most visited website at the end of the year? I thought is was going to be paramore.net, who with over 400,000 website visits in December 2010 had Eminem, Bieber, and Gaga all beat. But it was taylorswift.com who had the most, with close to 600,000—that’s like half of Bandcamp right there.

Bonus tracks: Right now The Pirate Bay gets as much traffic as MTV.com. Based on its current trajectory Pandora will soon surpass The New York Times. The most popular music magazine online is Rolling Stone—2.2M visits in December 2010. The most popular music blog is Pitchfork—1.4M visits in December 2010—like two Hype Machines. NPR is in the same ballpark as Last.fm.

Update 3/20: Based on requests to add additional sites to the heat map, there is now an alternate edition on page two that includes 8tracks and We Are Hunted rather than Thumbplay and Deezer. All are now on the data table. Regarding Lady Gaga’s 45 million plays, Colin—presumably Colin Willis from Next Big Sound—commented that Next Big Sound’s Vevo play count included Vevo plays from YouTube and therefore the 23 Lady Gaga videos per month calculation is inaccurate.

Top FREE Music Apps
iTunes – 2010 End

Top PAID Music Apps
iTunes – 2010 End

Okay so I obviously “planned” to write this post a little earlier. I even planned to write it last year. ;)

Giving gifts can be really hard, but if you really know someone, it’s much easier. Everyone is different.

Especially for a musician who is eager to promote themselves and be out there, I really like the idea of a pocket HD camera. If you want people to find you YouTube is the place. Get it on tape—not literally. Get it on bits. I won a Kodak Zi6 from Mashable in 2008 and the quality is unreal. Now there’s also the Zi8. I think the right book could be really good, like something on mixing for someone who does that. The best non-fiction book I read this year was Rework by the people from 37signals.com.

• More Ideas:
• Audiofanzine » Christmas Shopping 2010
• Hypebot » 10 Christmas Gift Ideas For Old-School Record Execs

Merry Xmas (or whatever your holiday of choice is:) and be safe! My end of the year posts are coming up next week. If you’re not already, tune in via RSS or Facebook. I better go start my shopping. Don’t worry I steer clear of the mall and I’ve already done some mental preparation. I’m going to hit Barnes and Noble, Campmor, the Polish store (for chocolate), and Total Wine. That should cover everyone!

UK startup BandApp is hell-bent on becoming the indie mobile replacement for MySpace and record labels. Similar in concept to Sound Around (now part of ReverbNation) or MobBase, BandApp’s monthly service gives musicians a platform to create and manage their own iPhone apps. But BandApp is taking a different approach in that they’re sidelining the paralyzing iTunes App Store approval process and delivering their apps via the web, and in 2011 will launch their own retail outlet, a digital storefront, called the BandApp Store.

Perhaps the most intriguing thing about BandApp is who’s behind it. Have you ever heard “The Ballad of Chasey Lain” or freak danced to “The Bad Touch?” [iTunes link] Don’t lie.

Actually BandApp founder Adam Perry (a.k.a. The Yin) was a drummer for the band ‘A’ until circa 2005 when he joined The Bloodhound Gang, who released those two particular sonic treats in 1999.

Pricing: Bands: £20 startup fee plus £7/month with 1-yr contract or £75/year. Fans: Free.

I gave a quick test run on my iPhone of one app, and it worked pretty well, nice features, especially the fan wall, but an issue with going horizontal (no landscape mode yet maybe). The fan wall gives a direct connection between the band and the fans, and has nice Twitter and Facebook shareability.

To try out the apps point your iPhone’s Safari browser to one of these: bandapp.com/theblackout – bandapp.com/zebrahead – bandapp.com/wearetheocean – bandapp.com/a. Once there, just use your menu to “add to home screen” and you have instant pain-free mobility. Can you pocket it?

Photo: digital vincent/flickr.

Mr. Owl, How many clicks does it take to get to the rock n’ roll center of a retail mp3?

Let’s find out. A One… A two-HOO…too many!

Mr. Owl just BitTorrented right into your album because it was easier than buying it on iTunes. It took less clicks.

Jay Frank suggested counting “clicks to content.” iTunes and Amazon send you through more than 10 clicks if you don’t already have an account but P2P takes only four clicks on average, he said. Streaming takes one or two. Think YouTube or Google, who nailed it with OneBox—the player that appears in their search results. “Anything more than two clicks and you’re missing out on the majority”, said Frank, “Impress them fast.”

Ariel Hyatt asked NMS attendees to raise their hands if they’ve ever bought their own songs on iTunes. The crowd was split but most hadn’t. She used the analogy of cooking: you wouldn’t serve food to guests without tasting it first, would you?

“Make it easy to buy” said Tony Van Veen. Have “compelling offers” such as package deals or name-your-price, and “take away the fear of buying” with a money-back guarantee. He told the story about an 80s band (I forget the name of the band but please comment if you know it) who recently sold their entire back catalog + their entire future catalog + free entry to any of their shows forever all for $100. For a superfan that’s a compelling deal.

Ripping and Burning > P2P

Eric Garland and Tom Silverman talked about the so-called problem with illegal downloads. If it’s hosted on an upload site like RapidShare, then “there is a place we can bomb”, said Silverman, “but not with P2P.” Research showed that more music is actually ripped/burned than it is shared via P2P.

Bombing the service provider is no solution when “people and their insatiable appetite for free music are the real problem.” –Eric Garland, CEO, BigChampange.

The desire for free music isn’t going away. Don’t blame the consumer. Musicians need to find ways to work free into their strategy. e.g. Free downloads for email addresses. Use free to convert strangers into fans. Tony Van Veen said, “Free music is the way to do it. Aggressively offer free. Do swaps. Use P2P. …Don’t fear free. …Build your list. …Don’t be afraid to steal a good idea and make it your own.”

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RIP Lala, but let the music rock on. I’m optimistic—what’s your reaction?
previous post: iTunes Is The 7-Eleven of Media

Device Dependency

Apple continues to create a major dependence on iTunes through their mobile products—the iPod, iPhone, and iPad—and I don’t think that anything is going to “kill” iTunes without a war. iTunes is the 7-Eleven of media—it’s more convenient and expensive, but it’s closer to home. For many, the iTunes experience is ingrained behavior—a household name—and part of their daily commute so to speak.

Generation Gap

The second huge advantage Apple has is the generation gap. Older people are more likely to have money to spend, and are less likely to adopt something new—especially if it’s less convenient. For Spotify to compete stateside, it will start through today’s youth. I love the Spotify concept, its mobility, and its adaptivity. They are smart to develop/test/improve their service in one location (Europe) before attempting to roll it out in another market (U.S.)—that’s business expansion 101. I hope that Spotify becomes a hit in the U.S. mainly for the sake of the music. Who wants an iTunes monopoly?

Apple Affinity

Apple products have strong affinity, and an army of enthusiasts drinking their Slurpees. Anyone looking to compete with them has to have an equal or greater affinity, and/or introduce something totally disruptive (which Spotify has done to a degree). Spotify has game, but so does Apple, who made a calculated move with last year’s Lala acquisition. One big thing to remember is that music has always been about the experience, and it always has been.

Apple Shuttle

Social Rocks.

The stage is lit—music has always been social, and the web continues to make it even more so. Communication is on the rise. People want to share and “everyone who shares is an influencer.” Music discovery is powered by your friends and by recommendation engines—the technology is only getting smarter, and, in their case, everyone who listens is an influencer. Web apps like Blip.fm and Twisten.fm rely nearly entirely on friend-powered playlists and realtime recommendations. Music streamers crave sharing, simplicity, and depths of controls for customizing their listening experiences.

Shareability and community spin music in the social web. Pandora and Last.fm’s widely popular iPhone apps encourage users to share songs they like with their friends as they’re listening to them. Grooveshark’s web interface heavily encourages sharing, and its integration with Twitter via Twisten.fm and Tinysong have helped fuel its rapid growth in 2009. Nearly all of today’s free (ad-supported) streaming sites include links to purchase mp3′s via iTunes or Amazon. Vevo has them, but, YouTube—arguably the largest and most engaging music streaming site—does not.

The Delicious user base has a relatively high concentration of developers, designers, techies, nerds, etc.—individuals likely to have above-average internet savvy. As a group they are an acute filter for quality content. The chart below shows the popularity of the same music websites based on data from Delicious. You can see there is some divergence from the traffic heat map. The most notable difference is MySpace Music, which showed the highest website traffic, but shows the lowest Delicious rank. Pandora is the top-bookmarked music site on Delicious by far, with last.fm second, and Grooveshark climbing quickly. Pandora is also the top-ranked music site on Xmarks.

Musicians—many are at the center of the social mix lifecasting on Twitter, Ustream, YouTube, Facebook, and MySpace. They’re communicating like never before, and evolving the industry. Revenue comes in new forms. The urge to be “indie” is contagious. The amplifiers are on.

Mobility Rolls.

Seven of the top twelve are radio/streaming apps. But smartphones are not just for listening to music. Gigzee is an events app—a location-aware tool for finding shows/concerts in your area. With more people on smartphones, more people can take advantage of location-based services like this. Music creation apps like Virtuoso Piano, Drum Kit, freestyle, NLog Synth, Digidrummer, Looptastic, and Jamble Music Mashups are wildly popular. Every human is an artist in some way—as technology improves more people will find themselves creating, and collaborating remotely. Who’s at center stage now? Creative Commons-released music encourages open remixing via sites like JamGlue, ccMixter, Indaba Music, Jamendo, SoundCloud, and more. Maybe influenced by NIN, many musicians are releasing audio source files for open remixing, fan remix contests, remix apps, or fan music videos.

Mood-based technology might zap us to better understand how music relates to human emotions. In their press release, Syntonetic says they’ve “cracked the emotional codes found in music to create an intelligent system that deciphers every musical property in a song, including moods and emotions, as well as musical genres and sub-genres, styles, tempo/beat, vocals, instruments and production features.” The way I see it, we’re only on the brink of emotion technology. App enthusiast Diego Balbuena says, “I do think that these type of programs can be the next killer app” but he stresses the importance of the apps being human-like. The more users that use the app, the more data they’ll have, and the better the algorithms will be. Happiness is a warm iPhone.